Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Afghanistan: Past Mistakes; did We Learn from them?



I found this video on YouTube which shows the true beauty of Afghanistan (some of it taken before the war took its brutal toll)

The chaotic madness of Kabul is surrounded by beautiful, idyllic, barren mountains.  From within the compound, they look like cardboard cut-outs -- close and protective.  But in reality, they are towering and distant -- with all the windy roads and tough, dangerous terrain; it could take a fortnight to reach the summit, but only with preparation and skill.



Some say that the terrain that is traversed by ATVs and donkeys are as dangerous as the enemy that lurks around it.

To really enjoy the natural beauty of this country, one must leave Kabul.  There is a very rich history and diverse landscape in this amazing country.


History of Occupation
After all, the city was invaded by the Arabs during the 7th century and then by the British in the 19th century and then by the Soviets 30 years ago.  Oddly enough, all occupiers have eventually failed.  The Soviets occupied for nearly ten years but had to withdraw their forces from Kabul in 1989 the wake of increasing diplomatic pressures.

Soviet tanks during the occupation


Anti-Modernism
On the heights of the Kabul Gorge, you can still find pendants, daggers, sword hilts and scabbards dating back to the first Anglo-Afghan war (1839-1842).  Sadly, all that remained from the British occupation of Afghanistan were thousands of dead and a steep opposition to foreign influence.  That is probably why there was huge public backlash against modernization attempts by the Afghan government and why the country precipitously slipped backwards.



A Time of Peace
There was a time of peace and stability in Afghanistan.  For over thirty years after World War II, the country was calm, stable and passionate about democracy.  People from all around the world started visiting the country. They were enchanted with the raw, natural beauty, history and archeology, and the Afghans welcomed them with open arms.

But then in 1973, a military coup ousted the king, destabilizing the country.  Then in the late 1970s under a communist regime, the country's became more impoverished, more unstable.  Then in 1979, the Soviets came knocking, only to be embroiled in a ten-year war that killed thousands.  The Soviets were finally driven out by US-backed resistance fighters, some of the same fighters who we are facing today.


Landscape
Landmines are still prevalent in Afghanistan
The countryside of Afghanistan is rustic and breathtaking.  From a distance, the rugged hills and countryside can be poetically beautiful.  With its luscious landscape and towering mountains, it is undiscovered beauty marked by the ravages of war.  From time to time, you see Soviet tanks ravaged and rusting.  Large holes like craters where the Soviets dug in their tanks.  We pass thousands of destroyed homes, twisted pieces of artillery remind us of the scope and brutality of that war.



This landlocked country sandwiched in between Iran and Pakistan is in a prime location and has a lot to offer.  It has suffered three decades of war and a seven-year drought.  Overtime, the flags change but the victims remain the villagers who labor in the fields that have been ravaged by the Taliban.  Life is short here; for some, there is not much to life to live for.

Despite all the horrors of war, the country is charming and naturally beautiful which needs to be appreciated and preserved.  The city over the years has been destroyed many times over and then reconstructed, only to be faced with new regimes.




My Reflections
During this trip while visiting the sites and enjoying the scenery as we were transported from one location to another, I thought long and hard about what we were doing and why we were here.

Simply put, Afghanistan is critical because we must defeat the Taliban, the culprits of 9/11.


War is Winnable
Unlike Iraq, the Afghan war is the right war to fight and although extremely complex and difficult, ultimately can be winnable.  We can push back the Taliban's advances and leave the nation of Afghanistan with a government that can govern effectively and provide security to its people -- people who hopefully may deem the Taliban ineffective -- who have suffered painfully for so many decades.


Why Afghanistan
Al-Qaeda has used Afghanistan as a base for training and operations for attacks against the US for the last ten years. Both Al-Qaeda and the Taliban poses a huge threat to our national security, so an invasion of Afghanistan by the US and NATO was the right thing to do, and we have little choice but to succeed, or else history may prove this to be a mistake.


American Intervention Goes Way Back
I'm sure many of you have watched the movie "Charlie Wilson's War".  If it wasn't for the CIA intervention in the 1980s, the enemy that we are fighting today may not be as strong.
Charlie Wilson in Afghanistan years ago

In the 1980s, the CIA poured millions of dollars and thousands of weapons into Afghanistan to help the mujahideen fight the Soviet.  Perhaps this was not too bad of an idea.  But the mistake that we made was not helping to rebuild the country after the Soviets retreated.

Now the Taliban  is using the same weapons against us.  How does this affect where we are now -- there is not a clear and cut answer.  The main concern was that this operation was done in secret behind closed doors.  If an endeavor is important and the right thing to do, then it needs to withstand the scrutiny of the people who will be impacted.


The Power of Negotiation
The repercussions that we suffer show time and time again that clandestine backdoor deals normally don't work (in the long run).  History books don't lie or spin the truth.  I realize that clandestine operations wrt CIA is necessary and critical for national security.  They are normally "outside the box" thinking and tend to be laced in good intentions -- which I believe can be the right thing to do.  But...


It's Not the Mistakes, Stupid...
In life, I am normally forgiving to honest mistakes, but not receptive to being oblivious to them.  This means, that if a surgeon cuts the wrong vein, this is bad, but I'll likely forgive you.  But did you identify your mistake, disclose it, discuss it, and take demonstrable actions to recover from it?

I learned (after many personal and professional failures), the best way to make decisions whether strategic or perhaps even quite routine is to be open and transparent about it, and even be willing to sell it to others, whether you deem them important or not.

Out On the Table
Being open and honest means putting on the table all you want to negotiate and to have an open discussion with all stake holders.  It doesn't matter how wild and crazy (wrazy) or completely irrelevant the proposal is -- it's on the table and you're going to vet these wrazy ideas with those who know the most.  Vetings are not necessarily democratic -- it doesn't mean that it has to be voted on, or approved unanimously.   It does mean that you have to completely vet it and before you take objective action, the key players have been informed and have made their say, for which you have listened.  When listening, give it your complete and undivided attention -- not just the message, but how it was delivered and the politics behind the delivery.  Life is not black and white -- it is quite gray.


The Art of Selling
Open Negotiation also includes selling the idea.  When I say sell, it is just not to your normal customers (subscribers, followers, surrogates).  It is to everyone that you can think of that has a say or think they have a say.   Audiences are never fully well defined -- well, again they can be quite gray.

That way other key players can weigh in and provide valuable feedback and pit falls.

If you or your agency has a proposal, you have to pitch it and fully disclose your intentions and objectives -- no holds barred.

Decisions also need to include Reflections of lessons and mistakes from way back and the political environment that exists.

If you decide to make decision behind closed doors -- this is where backdoor deals can get caught between the door and the door jam.

Can we negotiate with the Taliban?  President Hamid Karzai tends to think so -- and forge a path to peace.  Applying my thoughts, the Taliban is the enemy and negotiation should include those who do not wish us well.

The main lesson here is we are already suffering from the repercussions of past mistakes, can we now move forward and not make them again.






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